Predictions 2015: Closing Thoughts

Last week we launched TechMarketView’s theme for 2015, Joining the Dots. This theme reflects our belief that we will see a massive increase in the number things connected to other things and/or the internet. ‘Joining the dots’ will offer significant opportunities to suppliers of software and IT services to the UK market – though financial rewards will not be quite so obvious or swift.

TechMarketView’s research directors have recently presented their predictions for 2015 around this theme for their respective market segments and sectors: Infrastructure Services; Enterprise Software & Application Services; Business Process Services; Public Sector software and IT services; and Financial Services Sector software and IT services. I have extracted the essence of these predictions into some closing thoughts. The highlights are shown below, but subscribers to the TechMarketView Foundation Service can read the full screed here.

‘Mobile’ is a given – think ‘micro-mobile’

Although ‘transforming the customer experience’ through mobile devices has barely got underway, attention is already shifting to micro-mobile devices – basically, sensors – to take this to the next level. The combination of even smaller and ever cheaper technology, faster and more pervasive networks, advanced visualisation software, and massive data repositories and sophisticated analysis tools, will elevate the ‘customer experience’ to something previously only imagined in the realms of science fiction, if not fantasy.

New technology alone cannot join all the dots

Legacy back-end systems developed years (if not decades) ago were never designed to process the volume of transactions – and the ‘richness’ of transactions – initiated from millions of mobile devices let alone billions of micro-mobile devices. No amount of new ‘front-end’ technology will fix this as it is the cause of the problem. Bullets will need to be bitten – sooner, rather than later.

‘Digital’ is a symphony, not a solo

The ‘digital revolution’ has spurred the creation of a new breed of consultancy – the so-called ‘digital media agency’ – which tries to bridge the gap between IT design and marketing advisory. Some are start-ups, purpose built for the role. Many are simply rebrands of existing web design companies and PR agencies.

This mix of skills is generally not found in traditional IT systems integrators or for that matter, in traditional marketing and advertising agencies - no existing player is yet able to go truly ‘solo’ in the digital world. Therefore we are seeing a coming together of old world and new world through commercial partnerships and full-on acquisitions. Both come with risk, especially when the companies involved are of significantly different size and culture.

The more dots you join, the greater the risk of disconnection

The sense of urgency in ‘joining the dots’ – and the inherent complexity in doing so – leaves organisations open to increased risk. We have seen this many times before with legacy, mission-critical systems failing after a ‘routine’ software upgrade (no names, no pack drill). These risks are multiplied exponentially as you interconnect more systems, old and new. Radically different development and testing technologies and processes will need to be established to reduce the risk of system collapse and to make service interruptions all but invisible to its users. This is indeed rocket science.

Switch to automatic          

In order to join all the (appropriate) dots without proportionally increasing the number of people involved in joining them, you just have to automate wherever you can. Automation simplifies complexity and eliminates the mundane. But only to a point.

The CIO shall reign forever and ever (Hallelujah!)

The role of the CIO is certainly not dead. Each turn of the technology screw makes the ‘IT ecosystem’ intrinsically more complex, not simpler. Someone has to actually ‘join the dots’ and that’s the CIO. By the way, someone also has to carry the can when it all goes horribly wrong; that’s the CIO too!

Show me the money

Please, do try to make some money out of all of this. Both the software industry and the IT services industry are undergoing transformative changes in commercial engagement models (e.g. ‘pay as you go’, ‘outcome-based’) and product/service delivery models (notably ‘cloud’), with dramatic - in some cases catastrophic - consequences for revenue growth and profitability. By definition there can only be one winner with ‘first mover advantage’. Everybody else needs to stick to business basics and (re)learn how to turn revenue into profit and profit into cash.

Posted by Anthony Miller at '09:58' - Tagged: predictions