Articles tagged: socialmedia

• Tuesday 16th February 2010

  Facebook the key to the mobile internet?

  On 5^th Feb 10 in  Facebook – Now we are six we brought news that Facebook now had 400m users and that it was more popular (in terms of time spent on the site) for mobile users than Google. Indeed, in the last few days, Facebook has said that over 100m users now access Facebook from their mobiles. Tonight Facebook has announced a stripped down version  - FaceBook Zero – for mobile users who don’t want to pay the data charges (or endure the wait) for the data intensive bits, like photos, on their mobiles.

  I’ve pointed out many times before that we had forecast several years ago that FaceBook could become the portal of choice for consumers on their mobiles. We christened this MyTop and MobiTop. This prediction is fast becoming a reality. Mobile internet is the hottest topic at the World Mobile Congress in Barcelona this week. Everything from advertising to content is moving mobile. Indeed I note that the Evening Standard tonight launched its mobile app with special Facebook links. Metro launched its iPhone app last week. This marketplace is simply huge and will dominate the TMT sector in the next decade.

  It will also be game changing for the current players. That’s why Google is so concerned that it is being left  behind. Last week it launched its own social networking service -  Buzz (not to the greatest reviews) - and bought Aardvark.  There are 880m unique social networking users in the world with Facebook representing half of them. Although MySpace (c100m users) is #2, the ‘Chinese Google’ – Baidu - is #3 and has over 60m users of its social networking service Baidu Space. Google is just nowhere. The same applies to Microsoft. But at least Google is a significant player in mobile search which is more than can be said for Microsoft.

  The whole point of our MyTop/MobiTop prediction was that users would have just one port of call which would  follow them around on whatever device they choose to access the internet. The mother of all Cloud applications. That portal would not just do the normal stuff – like emails and status reports – but it would allow access to everything dear to you – your photos, your music, your TV, your videos, your books, your newspapers, your magazines. Maybe even your work! And all residing in the Cloud.

  In my view, the 'monetisation' of this opportunity will not be advertising - it will be e-commerce. Paying for access to content will be a part but the 'Amazonising' of Facebook will be the killer. I've already warned you of the 'danger' of the Amazon app on your iPhone with "One Click" being so simple that I'm sure it could become addictive! Just combine that with friends' recommendations on Facebook and you have something mega powerful.

  That’s why owning that portal – that MyTop, that MobiTop – is now the prize of prizes. Facebook has a huge advantage here. It is the iPod/iTunes of the social networking world. Once all your music/friends are on it, there is huge inertia not to move. Mark Zuckerberg is still only 25 but is probably sitting on one of the most valuable assets of the new mobile internet age. Just for once, it doesn’t really matter that the revenue model isn’t there…yet. It’s what the other players would pay to get that portal of choice that will make Zuckerberg a very wealthy young man.

  Posted by

  Richard Holway

  at 21:54 - 0 comments

• Friday 5th February 2010

  Facebook - Now we are Six

  Facebook celebrates its 6^th Birthday with an announcement today that it now has 400 million users. That means they have added 250m users since I wrote FaceBook – Now we are Five It is also understood that they are now profitable on a monthly basis.

  I’ve written much on Facebook over the years and, indeed as my Facebook friends will testify, I’m quite a fan. The MyTop concept that I introduced several years ago was all based around FaceBook being the portal of choice on the mobile internet. At the time (as in almost everything I say) the concept was greeted with a mixture of amusement and derision. I think people thought I had lost my marbles when I wrote an open letter to Mark Zuckerberg on the subject (See my 7^th Sept 07 post Mr Zuckerberg – MyTop - It could be you!) and probably thought I should be sectioned when I wrote a similar open letter to Steve Ballmer (See my 26^th Oct 08 post -  My advice to Steve Ballmer) suggesting Microsoft buy Facebook (instead of Yahoo which was being contemplated by Microsoft at that the time) as their consumer portal to the cloud.

  It reminds me of my favourite quip from the late Bob Monkhouse who said “When I told them I always wanted to be a top comedian, they all laughed. Well, they’re not laughing now!”

  The GSMA found that in Dec 09, Facebook dominated mobile internet traffic. Almost 50% of all the time the 16m users of mobile internet in the UK spent was on Facebook. Indeed they beat Google into second place. Facebook is truly now the MyTop of the mobile world - the first, and sometimes only, port of call for mobile users.

  Please remember you read it here first!

  Posted by

  Richard Holway

  at 09:22 - 0 comments

• Thursday 28th January 2010

  Twitter fading?

  I was sent a very interesting link from a reader to RJMetrics' blog on New data on Twitter’s users and engagement. (It’s a long article with lots of lovely charts!)

  Let me quote from its summary:

  “We analyzed data through the end of 2009. Where the data overlapped with our previous analysis (which ran through August 2009), the findings were highly consistent. However, the updated data revealed the following noteworthy trends:

  • Twitter ended 2009 with just over 75 million user accounts.
  • The monthly rate of new user accounts peaked in July 2009 and is currently around 6.2 million new accounts per month (or 2-3 per second). This is about 20% below July’s peak rate.
  • A large percentage of Twitter accounts are inactive, with about 25% of accounts having no followers and about 40% of accounts having never sent a single Tweet.
  • About 80% of all Twitter users have tweeted fewer than ten times.
  • Only about 17% of registered Twitter accounts sent a Tweet in December 2009, an all-time-low.
  • Despite these facts, Twitter users are becoming more engaged over time when we control for sample age.”

  I have tried and tried with Twitter. I am such a fan of Facebook (as those readers that are also my ‘friends’ know) so I’m not against the social networking thing. But Twitter leaves me cold. Even last night on the iPad announcement, I found the conventional blogging from the presentation to be much better. Indeed, an analysis of Twitter tweets from those who claimed to be ‘in the know’ or even to have had ‘advance versions for evaluation’ were found to be…well, liars.

  Clearly a core of Twitter fans will continue (indeed, I’m sure I’ll get a torrent of tweets from them!) But I think the fad is fading. Even Stephen Fry has given it up so he can do some work.

  Posted by

  Richard Holway

  at 09:27 - 0 comments

• Tuesday 15th December 2009

  2020 Vision – Social goes to work

  In Last decade, Next decade, Richard reviewed the tremendous changes in the IT sector over the past ten years. Tola Sargeant’s predictions for the UK Public Sector yesterday was the first of our look to the future. Today we look at Puni Rajah's assessment of how social technologies, platforms and media will evolve. We will publish views on Software, and IT Services during the rest of the week.

  Social for business

  Two months ago, as I started preparing for a series of CFO roundtables on information governance, the issue most participants wanted discussed was social media, and what investments businesses should be considering. Not that the usual topics of outsourcing, business-It alignment and investment governance were not of interest. Just that social media was the most pressing medium term concern.  It seemed to sum up the state of affairs rather well - corporate managers, including CFOs, understand something big is happening, but are not sure how businesses should respond. 

  Building a coherent approach to social technologies in the workplace requires a view of where social media is heading. Our predictions here are based on current adoption patterns, organisational and cultural realities and economic imperatives we face as the next decade beckons. 

  People, avatars and brands - quantity and quality growth 

  Social will enjoy increased adoption, and we will become better at distinguishing technologies (applications such as tagging, status updates), platforms (social environments such as Facebook) and content (conversations, information, opinion, collectively coined as media). 

  

  Holway's MyTop will apply more than ever before, and as we string together access to various technologies, platforms and media, we will each have greater choice in what is included in our inner circle. Brands too have been developing social identities, and as early success stories promote confidence, we will see an avalanche of corporate brands establishing  social profiles.

  Realtime search

  Volume will drive smarter use, which in turn will lead to greater sophistication. Translation technologies will improve, connecting user generated content across language barriers. 

  Google has just linked with Twitter to expand its scope of searchable content to include the publication of dynamic social web content. Realtime search will also deliver additional commercial opportunities such as real-time conversations, discovery, and trend tracking.

  Mobility

  In the near term, social technologies will drive more of us further towards the mobile lifestyle. Device readiness (smartphones, netbooks, tablets) and wireless broadband availability allow us to do more on the go. This in turn will lead to simpler websites, faster to load, point functions. Apple’s AppStore is the best indicator of the future of applications. 

  Mobile payments will enable more nimble businesses and business processes. Square, founded by Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, is the start of many such specialist clearing houses targeting specific demographics. Customers who can pay with confidence will be the hottest target markets. 

  Mobility, and user generated content, will also unleash a wave of localisation that will impact how businesses acquire customers, and deliver services and products.  Platforms such as foursquare and ubertwitter (geo-tagging) create new opportunities for businesses and local communities. One example of augmented reality today with high business relevance is WorkSnug. Many more will proliferate. 

  Products, services, jobs and problems find their targets

  Brands have started to include social marketing in their mix, and we expect social marketing to mature from ad-hoc experiments to broad implementation. 25% of search results for the 20 largest global brands are links to user-generated content, and as the socially networked population grows, this proportion will increase. 

  Jobs are being awarded on the basis of the right tweet, and terminated on account of the wrong one. Crowdsourcing is hitting its stride as testimonials from previous employers provide references and add a dimension of confidence. 

  More importantly, social technologies will reduce service delivery costs, and this in fact will truly be how social goes to work. For businesses, reducing the time from problem to resolution and allocating exactly the right resource means lower operating costs. Already today, online support communities and unified communications are creating efficiencies. Experimentations in health, emergency services, hospitality, utilities as well as retail will mature into mainstream adoption, and result in significant changes in delivery business processes. 

  Information culture

  Perhaps the biggest opportunity lies in how our attitudes towards information and privacy will change. By 2010, Gen Y will be the largest demographic group in the workplace. These employees do not distinguish between personal and professional profiles, and their proliferation in the workplace will increasingly challenge conventional corporate policies. Mind you, the problems will be the same old ones, but they will now be accelerated and exposed. 

  The fastest growing demographic on Facebook is 55-65 year old females. In January 2008, we predicted that silver surfers will rule, and indeed, they will  also influence how the online social scene evolves. From health matters to online shopping, their conversations and communities will add spending power and gravitas. 

  New tools and skills

  Monitoring conversations will be a lucrative niche. Tools such as Radian6,  ScoutLabs,  SociafyQ, and Cision are just the start. These capabilities will live in the cloud, and offer low cost precision that will in turn influence ROI measurement for marketing and sales effectiveness on the whole. Analytics will be the hottest skill in the next decade, as more information is produced, searched, indexed. Social middleware providers like Socialware will play a crucial role in bridging the new and traditional worlds of enterprise IT. 

  But most significantly, the economic environment has prepared us for change, and consumers and businesses are in the mood to try something different. We are at an inflection, where proliferation low-cost, high performance technologies will permanently change the way we run our lives, and consequently, our businesses.  

   

  Posted by

  Puni Rajah

  at 20:12 - 0 comments

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