On 5th Feb 10 in Facebook – Now we are six we brought news that Facebook now had 400m users and that it was more popular (in terms of time spent on the site) for mobile users than Google. Indeed, in the last few days, Facebook has said that over 100m users now access Facebook from their mobiles. Tonight Facebook has announced a stripped down version - FaceBook Zero – for mobile users who don’t want to pay the data charges (or endure the wait) for the data intensive bits, like photos, on their mobiles.
I’ve pointed out many times before that we had forecast several years ago that FaceBook could become the portal of choice for consumers on their mobiles. We christened this MyTop and MobiTop. This prediction is fast becoming a reality. Mobile internet is the hottest topic at the World Mobile Congress in Barcelona this week. Everything from advertising to content is moving mobile. Indeed I note that the Evening Standard tonight launched its mobile app with special Facebook links. Metro launched its iPhone app last week. This marketplace is simply huge and will dominate the TMT sector in the next decade.
It will also be game changing for the current players. That’s why Google is so concerned that it is being left behind. Last week it launched its own social networking service - Buzz (not to the greatest reviews) - and bought Aardvark. There are 880m unique social networking users in the world with Facebook representing half of them. Although MySpace (c100m users) is #2, the ‘Chinese Google’ – Baidu - is #3 and has over 60m users of its social networking service Baidu Space. Google is just nowhere. The same applies to Microsoft. But at least Google is a significant player in mobile search which is more than can be said for Microsoft.
The whole point of our MyTop/MobiTop prediction was that users would have just one port of call which would follow them around on whatever device they choose to access the internet. The mother of all Cloud applications. That portal would not just do the normal stuff – like emails and status reports – but it would allow access to everything dear to you – your photos, your music, your TV, your videos, your books, your newspapers, your magazines. Maybe even your work! And all residing in the Cloud.
In my view, the 'monetisation' of this opportunity will not be advertising - it will be e-commerce. Paying for access to content will be a part but the 'Amazonising' of Facebook will be the killer. I've already warned you of the 'danger' of the Amazon app on your iPhone with "One Click" being so simple that I'm sure it could become addictive! Just combine that with friends' recommendations on Facebook and you have something mega powerful.
That’s why owning that portal – that MyTop, that MobiTop – is now the prize of prizes. Facebook has a huge advantage here. It is the iPod/iTunes of the social networking world. Once all your music/friends are on it, there is huge inertia not to move. Mark Zuckerberg is still only 25 but is probably sitting on one of the most valuable assets of the new mobile internet age. Just for once, it doesn’t really matter that the revenue model isn’t there…yet. It’s what the other players would pay to get that portal of choice that will make Zuckerberg a very wealthy young man.

Mobile payments will enable more nimble businesses and business processes.