TechMarketView has been on Twitter for some time. But the manual updates meant that we were not exactly always uptodate!
So we have now automated the process. From today, as soon as something appears on HotViews it goes on the @TechMarketView on Twitter too.
Posted by HotViews Editor at '07:58'
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The publication today of Offshore suppliers in the UK public sector, tops off a very productive month. TechMarketView’s Foundation Service clients have also ‘enjoyed’:
- OffshoreViews Q2 2010
- IndustryViews Private Equity Q2 2010
- IndustryViews M&A Review Q2 2010
- What lies ahead for Central Government SITS suppliers
- Can Accenture keep its grip on the consulting crown?
- Earthquake – Richard Holway’s ‘State of the ICT Nation’ presentation
And that’s just one month!
Further updates to each of our streams – MarketViews, CompanyViews, OffshoreViews, SoftwareViews, IndustryViews and, of course, PublicSectorViews - are due in the next period.
Foundation Service clients now have a huge wealth of research, analysis and opinion at their fingertips - as well as access to the HotViews archive which now exceeds 3000 entries forming a fully searchable and unique repository of knowledge on everything you’ll ever need to know about the UK SITS sector.
TechMarketView’s Foundation Service clients now exceed 60 and include HP, BT, Microsoft, Fujitsu, Atos, Steria, TCS, Logica, Northgate, Computacenter – indeed a significant majority of the leading players. Email firstname.lastname@example.org and we’d be delighted to send you a proposal on how you can join the exclusive TechMarketView’s Foundation Service.
Posted by HotViews Editor at '15:26'
We’ve long held the view that despite well-recognised barriers, more software and IT services work for the UK public sector is sent offshore than the government makes apparent. Most of it is done “under the covers” – either quietly through the offshore facilities of onshore suppliers, or indirectly via subcontractors.
But in recent months we’ve seen some high profile public sector contracts let directly to offshore companies. TCS has been an early beneficiary signing deals with Cardiff Council, the UK Child Maintenance and Enforcement Commission and the Personal Accounts Delivery Authority.
As the government’s purse strings tighten further, we expect an increasing proportion of UK government money will be spent with the raft of India-based suppliers that are champing at the bit to take their share of the market. In fact, we think the offshore players’ share of the £11b UK public sector SITS market will rise from less than 1% last year to 3-5% of the market over the next few years.
How are the leading offshore suppliers positioned in the market? What will be the keys to their success and where should they target first? Subscribers to TechMarketViews’ PublicSectorViews research can read our views in our latest report – Offshore suppliers and the UK public sector – which is available for download from today.
Posted by HotViews Editor at '14:01'
It’s been another excellent week for TechMarketView in the News.
Our Earthquake presentation to the Prince’s Trust at BT Tower was featured in an article by the FT’s new tech correspondent Courtney Weaver – TechMarketView eyes IT slowdown. Indeed our prediction of five years of decline for the UK SITS sector, occasioned by the reductions in spend by HM Govt., was carried by a remarkably large number of publications. The best was undoubtedly Simon Quicke in Microscope. Also, on 22nd Sept, the day of the FT article, we got a record number (like three times the previous high) of hits on www.techmarketview.com; many resulting from Google searches on “Earthquake”. Well, it was certainly a 'first' for the FT to use our company name in a headline.
Georgina O’Toole’s comments on the public sector IT downturn were also covered extensively. Eg ContractorUK, NetworkWorld etc. Tola Sargeant got coverage in CRN for how NHS IT reforms could benefit SMEs.
Many other TechMarketView stories made headlines in other media. Holway – now such an iPad fan that one reader asked if he was on commission from Apple (answer unfortunately is ‘No’) – gave his reactions in The Telegraph to a YouGov survey that found iPads are used most for web, email and newspapers. Must admit that the survey results were so obvious as to not really merit comment.
Then there were myriad comments taken from our posts on individual companies. Eg RM, Satyam, Intec and our Philip Carnelley on Why Oracle recruited HP’s Hurd.
Of course, the very best way to keep ahead of the rest of the media is to read TechMarketView first here on HotViews! Readership is up nearly 20% in the last three months alone.
Note - Photo/graphic courtesy of the Daily Telegraph
Posted by HotViews Editor at '13:20'
We've had quite a number of requests for the slidedeck for Richard Holway's Earthquake presentation to the Prince's Trust Technology Leadership Group at BT Tower on 21st Sept. So we have put it on the website for our Foundation Service clients only. You can download Earthquake (c3mb) HERE.
Posted by HotViews Editor at '09:26'
Perhaps the most explosive announcement at my Earthquake speech last night was a pre announcement of the revised forecasts for the UK Software and IT Services market we will publish in October. TechMarketView’s Public Sector team have undertaken an extensive review of the cutbacks in SITS spend likely to come out of the spending review. We are now forecasting that, rather than the three years of decline (in real terms) between 2008 -2010 as in our current forecasts, that run of declines will now extend to 2012. Indeed the forecast return to growth in 2013 is so meagre that even that must be in doubt. That means we will have had at least five years decline (in real terms) in the UK SITS market.
We are now estimating that over 10% of annual SITS spend will be taken from the public sector between 2009 and 2012 with central government SITS spend down by nearly 30%.
This is the largest and most severe reduction in our UK SITS forecasts in my 25 years as an analyst. The resulting downturn will be the longest and most severe in the 50 year history of IT. In 2002 I forecast that UK SITS was now deflationary - we would do far more IT but spend far less doing it. I believe this is now an established trend for at least the next decade too - and probably forever.
We will be publishing detailed forecasts, as usual, for our Foundation Service clients in the coming weeks as our revised forecasts are finalised.
Posted by Richard Holway at '06:01'
That’s the headline story in the latest edition of TechMarketView OffshoreViews, our regular quarterly review of the offshore services scene. In this issue we’ve taken the opportunity to update our estimates of the UK revenues for the leading India-based SIs and show you a surprising change in the rankings halfway through the year.
Plus you’ll find our usual data-packed summary of the key financial and operating metrics of the leading India-based IT services players.
We also bring you a timely taster of our new research note on the positioning of the leading India-based SIs in the UK public sector. Yes, they have a position and, yes, it’s growing!
TechMarketView Foundation Service clients can download OffshoreViews right now!
Posted by HotViews Editor at '12:44'
On 21st Sept 2010, Richard Holway gave his Annual “State of the ICT Nation” Presentation for Prince’s Trust Technology Leadership Group in an event sponsored by BT, and introduced by Jeff Kelly, CEO of BT Global Services at BT Tower.
The CEOs from 50 of largest ICT companies operating in the UK market attended both the presentation and the dinner afterwards.
Richard Holway is Chairman of TechMarketView LLP and Vice Chair of the Prince’s Trust Development Board. Holway was one of the founders of the Prince’s Trust Technology Leadership Group.
Earthquakes don’t just happen. They are the end result of huge pressures built up over long periods of time. Indeed, it is very like the seismic shifts that are taking place right now in the ICT industry as the tectonic plates of the old and new business models rub up against each other with earth-shattering consequences.
Holway’s speech is the 12th in the series he has presented for the Prince’s Trust since 2002. Indeed these speeches alone have raised over £850,000 for the Trust.
Each of the current seismic shifts have been identified in those previous speeches and this year’s speech brings them all together to demonstrate that the industry is facing the most explosive period in its 50 year history.
ICT is deflationary
In 2002, Holway warned that the ICT growth was unlikely to exceed 1x GDP. Indeed Holway contended that the ICT was deflationary. Although this was highly contentious at the time it proved to be somewhat optimistic. The ICT sector ended the first decade of the new millennium with a lower share of GDP than where it started.
Holway will renew his forecast for the next decade to 2020 when, yet again, ICT growth will be <GDP growth. This is mainly due to what Holway describes as ‘Cold Tech’ – a whole range of advances and changes which actually shrink the ICT market. Eg the significant growth of offshoring in the last decade. In the next decade, Cloud computing will provide major benefits for users but at a much lower cost; greatly affecting the revenues and valuations of those suppliers dependent on the old ‘on premise’ model. Those that can’t change their business models fast enough will disappear.
Public Sector ICT spend
In the short term, the sector is facing another seismic shift as the reductions in public sector ICT spend are actioned. Holway announce the biggest reduction in forecast growth rates since he started as an analyst 25 years back in 1985. Rather than the 3 years of decline between 2008-2010 as previously forecast, five years of decline are now expected with only minimal growth in 2013 to break that run. The public sector has been ‘the lifebuoy’ of the industry for the last 10 years and now represents over 30% of ICT revenues - indeed, many of the larger players have over 50% of their revenues from that sector So the effects on company performance – including stock market valuations – are going to be pretty devastating.
Holway’s Martini Moment
Back in 2003, Holway forecast the rapid growth of MIDs (Mobile Internet Devices) and the advent of a new era of being able to access the internet ‘anywhere, anytime and from any device” (Hence the Martini Moment..)
Holway used this year’s speech to forecast that:
Again the effect that this is and will have on everyone from computer manufacturers, to mobile phone suppliers to telecomms companies will lead to greater and faster change than anything so far experienced.
In 2007, Holway warned that social technologies would have huge effects on the enterprise. With bets being taken on how soon Facebook will have 1b users, that would mean than a majority of the all the people in the world with access to the internet had a Facebook profile…
All businesses will be affected. Reputations will be made and destroyed by social technologies.
In 2005, Holway introduced the concept of his MyTop – a personalised portal to the Cloud. Holway contends that Facebook is now as close a fit to his MyTop concept as you can get.
Holway predicted that the combination of MIDs (as above), Apps and MyTop/Facebook will wreak havoc on the business models of many of the leaders. Indeed, Holway now predicts that Google’s current model is the one most at risk.
Shape of things to come
In 2005, Holway warned that companies could not expect their current business models to work in the new, changed environment. Since then Holway has used the music industry as a portent. Revenues from physical sales of music have slumped and revenues from digital downloads have failed to compensate as users moved to MP3 players. But the UK music industry is in rude health – growing by 4.7% in 2009 – because of major growth in revenues from live music and B2B (eg use of music in advertising)
Holway believes that the publishing industry is the next to face that change and is very sceptical that subscriptions or advertising will compensate for the move from print to online readership. New revenue models must be created.
The same will apply to the software industry where the move to Cloud will destroy the old product licence ‘cash cow’ model as much software becomes ‘free’. Again new models are required for survival.
Year of the Tablet
In his last ICT Leaders speech in 2009, Holway predicted that 2010 would be “The Year of the Tablet”. Largely ridiculed at the time, it has come to pass in spades. Holway says that the acceptance of the tablet (and iPad in particular) has been the fastest move to ‘mainstream’ of any technological innovation he has seen in his lifetime.
Holway predicted that tablets will be a major category of MIDs in their own right with many users having multiple tablets. Holway also predicted their wide-spread use in the enterprise. Again, these changes will have significant effects on the fortunes of the current main players.
This series of innovations and changes are now all happening simultaneously. The ICT industry and its main players are in for the biggest period of disruption in their history.
Only the best built buildings survive earthquakes. Few ICT companies will survive intact. Some of the ruins will be acquired and ‘rebuilt’. Some will fail completely. The new open spaces created will enable new companies to grow and prosper – just as Google was created and built to its current position in the last decade.
More information from:
Chairman, TechMarketView LLP, PO Box 183, Farnham, Surrey, GU10 1QX
Tel: 01252 781545 email@example.com www.TechMarketView.com
Posted by Richard Holway at '14:49'
This Tuesday, 21st Sept 10, I’m delivering my Annual “State of the ICT Nation” Presentation for the Prince’s Trust Technology Leadership Group before the ICT Leaders Dinner event sponsored by BT and introduced by Jeff Kelly, CEO of BT Global Services, at BT Tower.
The event was a sell-out some five months ago and, at £1250 a ticket, will raise well over £60,000 for the Prince’s Trust. This is my 12th such speech for the Trust since 2002 which, in total, have now raised over £850,000.
I’ll bring you the full monty for the speech later in the week but it’s all about earthquakes this year.
You see, Earthquakes don’t just happen. They are the end result of huge pressures built up over long periods of time. Indeed, it is very like the seismic shifts that are taking place right now in the ICT industry as the tectonic plates of the old and new business models rub up against each other with earth-shattering consequences.
Each of the current seismic shifts have been identified in the previous eleven speeches since 2002 when “IT’s all over now” introduced a sceptical audience to the idea that the ICT industry was actually entering a long deflationary period. This year’s speech brings all the themes together to forecast that the industry is facing the most explosive period in its 50 year history.
The CEOs of many of TechMarketView’s clients will be present so Anthony & I look forward to seeing you again atop BT Tower on Tuesday night
Posted by Richard Holway at '14:30'
In the latest edition of IndustryViews Private Equity, we ask whether Government-supported venture capital schemes are becoming so difficult for the VC industry to navigate through (let alone the start-ups they aim to invest in) that you have more chance of ‘finding Wally’ than finding the dosh. As ever, we take a provocative view!
Also in IVPE is our regular analysis of VC and PE investment in UK software and IT services companies, and interviews with Patrick Reeve, founder and managing partner at Albion Ventures, and Rob Carroll, MD at Catapult Venture Managers.
TechMarketView Foundation Service clients can download IVPE Q2 2010 right now!
Posted by HotViews Editor at '16:46'
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