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Thursday 27 August 2009

What’s the Point of Avanade?

That was our opening question to Avanade’s UK MD, Ian Jordan, and President of Europe, Ashish Kumar when we recently met them. For those who don’t know, the “world’s largest Microsoft SI” was created in April 2000 as a joint venture between Accenture and Microsoft, who remain its principal owners. And, of course, they both have consulting and SI capabilities of their own. So why establish Avanade?

To find out why, you should read our latest CompanyViews note, The Point of Avanade. Of course, to do that you need to be a TechMarketView subscription service client and, as ever, Puni Rajah (prajah@techmarketview.com) can tell you how.

Posted by Anthony Miller at '10:46'

Tuesday 11 August 2009

MarketViews update and the accuracy of forecasts

(By Richard Holway 3.00pm Tuesday 11th August 09) As you probably saw, we launched our MarketViews update this morning - a co-production with our partners PAC. You will also have seen that our forecasts are pretty much unchanged. UK SITS spend will decline 1.3% in 2009 vs the 1.0% decline we forecast in February.

Most of our 'competitors' have been forced to come out with a series of pretty major forecast revisions recently. They have all received publicity as evidence of a declining market. Whereas actually they were evidence of some pretty poor forecasting! We have been very proud of our forecasting history - indeed much of it since 1992 in partnership with PAC. The downturn in the UK SITS market was pretty obvious when the current crisis started almost exactly two years ago in Aug 07. Within a month we had forecast negative growth for both 2008 and 2009 and have kept with our forecast that the first evidence of an upturn in the UK SITS will not be experienced until H2 2010.

The trouble is that prophets are rarely appreciated. I sometimes feel 'the more right you are the less you are liked'. A year back, Anthony and I met with the CEO of one of the Top Ten SITS suppliers. We had one of the most 'robust' sessions I have ever known where said CEO rubbished our contention that SITS growth would follow GDP into 'negative territory'. I still remember the session because I came away feeling that we were being persuaded to change our forecast because then, by some magic, such a downturn wouldn't happen and all our futures would be saved. If only we had such power!

We are proud of our forecasting record. If we think it is going to rain, we will tell you regardless of whether this is what you want to hear. If you choose to go out without an umbrella and get wet, then 'on your head be it'.

Posted by Richard Holway at '14:53'

Tuesday 11 August 2009

The UK SITS market - It’s worse than we thought (but not that much)!

As we had feared when we published our inaugural MarketViews UK Forecast report back in February, UK SITS (software and IT services) spending is declining more steeply than anticipated as organisations not only halted ‘discretionary’ projects but also pulled back ‘keep the lights on’ spend.

In conjunction with our research partners, PAC, we have therefore slightly downgraded our UK SITS market forecasts, though compared to some other analyst firms, our changes are relatively minor. We now expect that ’top line’ UK SITS spend will decline 1.3% in 2009 vs the 1.0% decline we forecast in February. In real terms (i.e. excluding inflation, assumed at 1% this year), the UK SITS market will contract by 2.3%, though this is still ‘better’ than the 4.3% UK GDP decline forecast by the IMF. The rebound will also be more muted, with the UK SITS market not expected to return to growth in real terms until 2011, and then by under 1%.

Our completely revised forecasts for the UK SITS market are now available in our new MarketViews Forecast Update note in the subscriber-only section of our website. If you are not yet a subscription service client you should know the drill by now - contact Puni Rajah (prajah@techmarketview.com) and she will give you the details.

Posted by Anthony Miller at '09:39'

Tuesday 11 August 2009

TechMarketView in the press

(By Richard Holway 9.00am Tuesday 11th Aug 09) It was an excellent day for TechMarketView in the press. Loads of references to our new market forecasts (see above) and comment on other topics.

 

But we got the most coverage for our comments on the Conservatives plan for NHS IT. In the world of press coverage, there are some real heavyweights. A mention in the Financial Times, for example, can really raise your profile and land you real business. The same applies to Businessweek. So we were very pleased to get quoted extensively in Businessweek yesterday - Tories outline new NHS IT plan - due to an article by Nick Heath in silicon.com.

Posted by Richard Holway at '09:00'

Tuesday 04 August 2009

New research from TechMarketView: Q2 IVMA

As ever, in conjunction with our good friends at Regent Partners, we’re keeping our fingers on the pulse of the tech M&A scene (and, yes, there’s still a pulse!) to bring you the Q2 2009 edition of IndustryViews M&A. In this quarter’s review you will find comment on some of the deals that are reshaping the UK software and IT services industry, and our latest thoughts on company valuations.

Regent executive chairman Peter Rowell reported that acquisition activity declined in Q2 2009, maintaining the trend set at the end of last year, though briefly interrupted by a small rise in Q1. However, this reflected a low level of deals in May rather than continuing decline during the quarter. We also saw three tech IPOs in the quarter, the first for the year. The question is, have we yet reached the nadir?

Dare we remind you that IndustryViews M&A and companion programmes IndustryViews Quoted Sector (out last week) and IndustryViews Private Equity (updated later this month) are only available to clients of the TechMarketView subscription service. Puni Rajah (prajah@techmarketview.com) will be delighted to tell you more.

Posted by Anthony Miller at '10:32'